← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 66% | 78% | 1.47 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 20% | 12% | 4.92 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14% | 9% | 7.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3186.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1831.75 | 1496.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.04 | -10.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.04 |
| state index | 1.61 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |