← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 37% | 38% | 2.67 | fair |
| Heracles win | 36% | 33% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.61 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 232.00 | 1724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.28 | 1633.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.02 | -32.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 25.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |