← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.47 | value: +7% |
| NAC Breda win | 14% | 14% | 6.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1529.98 | 1426.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.11 | 18.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |