← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 55% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.82 | fair |
| Heracles win | 20% | 17% | 4.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 407.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1516.81 | 1446.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.83 | 7.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |