← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 45% | 46% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 164.00 | 986.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1402.16 | 1421.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.30 | -14.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |