← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 64% | 54% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 29% | 4.72 | value: +37% |
| AZ win | 15% | 17% | 6.52 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1648.13 | 1621.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.91 | -1.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| league points | 41.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.81 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |