← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 54% | 57% | 1.82 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.89 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.87 | 1652.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.34 | 44.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 21.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |