← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 70% | 62% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.42 | value: +16% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 12% | 16% | 8.16 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 979.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1440.03 | 1783.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.77 | 4.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.56 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |