← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 39% | 38% | 2.51 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 33% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1344.00 | 1160.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1434.11 | 1631.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.69 | -73.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |