← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sun, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 55% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 21% | 18% | 4.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1697.00 | 631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1653.42 | 1551.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.18 | -13.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |