← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Fri, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 37% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +9% |
| NAC Breda win | 35% | 32% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1387.17 | 1524.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.97 | -16.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 15.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.30 |
| state index | -1.28 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |