← Eredivisie 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 57% | 56% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 18% | 19% | 5.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 378.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1507.42 | 1408.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.32 | -19.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 0.68 |
| state index | 0.01 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |