← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 25% | 35% | 3.85 | value: +35% |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1454.39 | 1620.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.43 | 42.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 32.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.95 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |