← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 39% | 1.91 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 25% | 32% | 3.93 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.04 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1515.44 | 1620.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.30 | -36.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 38.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.67 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |