← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 83% | 79% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | 8.61 | value: +26% |
| NAC Breda win | 6% | 7% | 17.13 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 5054.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1662.41 | 1475.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.66 | -28.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.06 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |