← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 42% | 51% | 2.30 | value: +16% |
| Roda JC win | 32% | 25% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 671.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1487.21 | 1400.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.81 | -23.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.19 | -1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |