← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 62% | 43% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.50 | value: +32% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 17% | 28% | 5.87 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1499.30 | 1655.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.56 | -36.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.66 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |