← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 74% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.16 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 10% | 7% | 9.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 330.00 | 665.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1625.30 | 1481.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.14 | -10.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 54.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |