← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 42% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 34% | 45% | 2.86 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 147.00 | 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1408.75 | 1541.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.56 | 44.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.41 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |