← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 63% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.90 | fair |
| NEC win | 17% | 15% | 5.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1031.00 | 847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1440.42 | 1707.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 29.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.84 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |