← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 64% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.07 | value: +16% |
| Heracles win | 17% | 18% | 5.73 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1396.00 | 2857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1473.90 | 1823.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.57 | 6.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 36.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.16 |
| state index | -0.38 | 1.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |