← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 64% | 1.62 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.53 | fair |
| NEC win | 18% | 15% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 194.00 | 1017.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1577.67 | 1435.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.55 | -17.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.90 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |