← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 79% | 88% | 1.23 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 7.54 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 8% | 4% | 12.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2843.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1821.64 | 1482.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.35 | 36.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 66.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.19 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |