← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Vitesse win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 2836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1650.53 | 1843.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.17 | 8.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| league points | 53.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 2.17 |
| state index | 0.25 | 1.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |