← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 38% | 44% | 2.55 | value: +13% |
| Roda JC win | 36% | 28% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 126.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.76 | 1580.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.10 | 24.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |