← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 50% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.73 | fair |
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win | 24% | 29% | 4.14 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1009.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.56 | 1515.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.83 | 8.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 27.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.88 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |