← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 65% | 55% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.49 | value: +18% |
| NAC Breda win | 13% | 19% | 7.59 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5026.00 | 825.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.64 | 1694.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.22 | -30.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.77 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |