← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 54% | 49% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 27% | 4.26 | value: +15% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 23% | 24% | 4.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1374.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1509.62 | 1492.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.13 | 0.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |