← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Wed, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 69% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.46 | value: +13% |
| Waalwijk win | 13% | 12% | 7.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1478.11 | 1839.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.72 | 9.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 30.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 2.14 |
| state index | -0.37 | 1.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |