← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Wed, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 53% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.13 | fair |
| Heracles win | 23% | 17% | 4.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1371.00 | 1006.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.89 | 1717.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.14 | 18.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 36.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.14 | 1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |