← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 58% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.05 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 23% | 5.54 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 119.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.64 | 1449.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.59 | -46.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 25.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.62 | -1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |