← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 44% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1002.00 | 1367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.04 | 1488.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.09 | -16.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |