← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 61% | 68% | 1.59 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 15% | 12% | 6.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1573.91 | 1516.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.75 | -20.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |