← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 83% | 82% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.54 | value: +9% |
| Roda JC win | 6% | 6% | 16.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1703.07 | 1424.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.84 | -17.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.89 |
| state index | 1.31 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |