← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 54% | 65% | 1.81 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.16 | fair |
| NEC win | 23% | 14% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1360.00 | 995.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1577.67 | 1439.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | 1.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.93 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |