← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 43% | 48% | 2.26 | value: +8% |
| FC Groningen win | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 294.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.62 | 1656.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.30 | -1.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |