← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 48% | 42% | 2.04 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 27% | 30% | 3.61 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.89 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 989.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.05 | 1528.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.47 | -7.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |