← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 72% | 56% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 29% | 5.37 | value: +57% |
| NAC Breda win | 10% | 15% | 10.15 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 5006.00 | 2815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.52 | 1817.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.03 | 5.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 32.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.15 |
| state index | -0.08 | 1.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |