← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 60% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.09 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 17% | 20% | 5.87 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1353.00 | 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1481.48 | 1431.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.25 | -21.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.80 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |