← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 76% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.52 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 9% | 7% | 10.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1687.55 | 1533.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.94 | -15.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.15 |
| state index | 1.23 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |