← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 60% | 62% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.48 | fair |
| Heracles win | 19% | 16% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 158.00 | 1346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1567.12 | 1493.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.94 | 3.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |