← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| AFC Ajax win | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 975.00 | 2801.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1701.46 | 1816.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.27 | 2.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| league points | 45.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 2.16 |
| state index | 0.96 | 1.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |