← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 67% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.68 | value: +13% |
| Waalwijk win | 10% | 13% | 9.65 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 152.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1555.81 | 1469.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.88 | 14.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |