← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 45% | 55% | 2.19 | value: +19% |
| NEC win | 30% | 19% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 273.00 | 974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1520.26 | 1449.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.02 | 5.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |