← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 63% | 58% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.44 | value: +7% |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 15% | 18% | 6.64 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Go Ahead Eagles | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 608.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1483.70 | 1681.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.16 | 9.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |