← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Fri, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 40% | 40% | 2.43 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 34% | 35% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1338.00 | 1338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.33 | 1563.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.87 | 5.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |