← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 75% | 78% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 12% | 6.14 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 9% | 10% | 10.38 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 267.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1648.34 | 1476.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.11 | 13.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |