← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.74 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1521.22 | 1517.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.49 | -18.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |