← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 66% | 72% | 1.47 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.78 | fair |
| AZ win | 13% | 10% | 7.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2794.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1811.17 | 1561.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.60 | 16.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| league points | 51.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.42 |
| state index | 1.33 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |