← Eredivisie 2013-14 · Sun, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 68% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.91 | value: +14% |
| NAC Breda win | 12% | 16% | 8.01 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4978.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.48 | 1702.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.35 | 7.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.87 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |